000
FXUS62 KTBW 070823 CCA
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
317 AM EST SAT NOV 7 2009

CORRECTED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...FORECAST FOCUS WILL BE ON
TEMPERATURES IN WHAT WILL REMAIN A VERY QUIET SHORT TERM PERIOD.
THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE WILL BE A SURFACE RIDGE MOVING OFF THE
COAST OF THE SOUTHEAST US. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND DRY AIR. AS IDA TRACKS NORTH OUT OF
THE CARRIBEAN BY SUNDAY..THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE
BETWEEN THE STORM AND THE RIDGE. THIS WILL CAUSE SURFACE WINDS TO
INCREASE. ONLY CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WERE TO RAISE SKY
COVER A BIT EACH DAY...AS THERE LOOKS TO BE A LARGE SHIELD OF MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS COVERING MOST OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF
CURRENTLY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL FOR TODAY AND THEN
SLOWLY WARM A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY. THIS WILL OCCUR AS AN H5 RIDGE
STRENGTHENS ATOP FLORIDA. GIVEN EXPECTED CLOUDS AND THE ACTUAL H8
TEMPERATURES THE MAV MOS SEEMED TO BE TOO HIGH ON THE SURFACE
TEMPERATURES THIS PERIOD AND SO WENT WITH A BLENDED SOLUTION.

.LONG TERM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST IS BEGINNING
TO GAIN A LITTLE MORE CLARITY THIS MORNING WITH REGARDS TO THE
EVOLUTION OF TROPICAL STORM IDA. WITH IDA CURRENTLY IN THE WARM
WATERS OF THE NW CARIBBEAN...A NORTHWARD PROPAGATION INTO THE
GOMEX AS A TROPICAL STORM IS ANTICIPATED BY NHC. LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE SHOWS SOMEWHAT MORE AGREEMENT TO THE OVERALL PATH OF IDA
AND THE ASSOCIATED MOISTURE EVEN THOUGH THE ECMWF STILL TRACKS A
LITTLE MORE WEST OF THE GFS SOLUTION.

FOR TUESDAY...WITH IDA OR ITS REMNANTS LINGERING IN THE NORTH
CENTRAL GOMEX SFC WINDS OVER THE REGION WILL REMAIN BREEZY AS THEY
VEER TOWARDS A MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGHOUT THE DAY. IDA SHOULD
GRADUALLY START INTERACTING WITH A MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS PROPAGATING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE SE US WHICH WILL HELP DRIVE SOME OF ITS
MOISTURE TOWARDS OUR REGION. NUDGED POPS UP TO 30 ACROSS THE REGION
ON TUES AFTERNOON.

BY WEDNESDAY...GFS STARTS TO INDICATED A DECOUPLING OF IDA AND ITS
MOISTURE AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE ATLANTIC. GFS TAKES
THIS MOISTURE ACROSS THE PENINSULA. WHILE THE ECMWF DOES NOT REALLY
SHOW THE DECOUPLING...IT STILL HAS THE MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA. THEREFORE...RAISED POPS TO 30. PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO
LOSE STRENGTH THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY SO SFC FLOW LOOKS TO
BRIEFLY WEAKEN. MODELS SHOW THE GRADIENT TIGHTENING BACK LATE
WEDNESDAY AS SFC FLOW BACKS TO A MORE ENE FLOW.

FOR THURS AND FRI...HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD BACK INTO THE
REGION WITH DRIER AIR FILTERING IN FROM THE NORTH. EASTERLY FLOW
WILL PREVAIL WITH LOW RAINFALL CHANCES.

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY. SFC FLOW WILL
CONTINUE FROM THE ENE WITH WINDS GUSTING AROUND 20 IN THE AFTERNOON

.MARINE...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS...AND IDA LIFTING NORTH WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUATION OF
HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATES SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25 TO 28 KNOTS BY EARLY MONDAY IN THE
OFFSHORE WATERS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE TO 8 TO 10 FEET WELL OFFSHORE DURING THIS TIME AS WELL.
FURTHER INFORMATION ON THE TRACK AND POSSIBLE IMPACTS OF IDA CAN
BE FOUND IN THE MOST RECENT NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ADVISORIES.

.FIRE WEATHER...INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL HELP TO KEEP RH
VALUES ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. STRONG SURFACE WINDS OF 10 TO 15
KNOTS CAN BE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  82  63  84  66 /   0   5  10  10
FMY  84  66  85  67 /   0   5  10  10
GIF  80  63  83  65 /   0   5  10  10
SRQ  83  64  85  68 /   0   5  10  10
BKV  82  56  84  64 /   0   5  10  10
SPG  80  67  82  70 /   0   5  10  10

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR BONITA
BEACH TO      ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 NM-BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20
TO 60      NM-ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 NM-ENGLEWOOD
TO      TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM-TARPON SPRINGS TO
SUWANNEE      RIVER OUT 20 NM-TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT
20 TO      60 NM.

SHORT TERM/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...35/JOHNSON
LONG TERM/AVIATION...20/BARRON