000
FXUS62 KTBW 231759
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
1259 PM EST MON NOV 23 2009

.SHORT TERM TODAY-WEDNESDAY...STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
REMAIN DRAPED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE CWA. POSITION OF THE
FRONT IS CURRENTLY DEFINED BY LINE OF SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM
SOUTHERN DESOTO COUNTY TO THE WATERS JUST WEST OF CHARLOTTE AND
LEE COUNTIES. FOR THE REST OF TODAY STILL EXPECTING THE BEST RAIN
CHANCES ACROSS THE TAMPA BAY AREA WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES CONTINUING.

FOR TUESDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH DIGS THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH
SOME ENERGY MOVING AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND INTO THE
CENTRAL GULF. THIS WILL KEEP SCATTERED RAIN CHANCES AND INCREASED
CLOUD COVER IN THE FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

FOR WEDNESDAY...MORE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IN PLACE ENHANCES
PRECIPITATION ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTH FLORIDA...SO HAVE
CONTINUED SCATTERED POPS AREA WIDE WITH THE BEST CHANCES SOUTH.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.LONG TERM THURSDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...MODELS HAVE SLIGHTLY SPED UP
FEATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. NOW EXPECT PRECIPITATION GENERATING
SHORT WAVE TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
MOST OF THE RAIN TAPERING OFF FROM N TO S BY THURSDAY MORNING. UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES CONTINUE TO WRAP TROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH AROUND
BASE OF LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AND PUSH SURFACE COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE AREA THANKSGIVING DAY WITH AROUND NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.  COOLER AND DRIER HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE
REGION ON BREEZY NORTHERLY FLOW THURSDAY NIGHT HOLDING OVER THE
REGION THEN WEAKENING INTO SATURDAY WITH TEMPS FALLING 5 TO 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS NEXT UPPER TROUGH BRINGS ANOTHER COLD FRONT
INTO THE DEEP SOUTH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING.

.AVIATION...STALLED NARROW BOUNDARY WITH SHRA OVER SW FL 20NM NW OF
KFMY EXPECTED TO REMAIN N OF THE TERMINAL...SO MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AT TAF SITES. FOG AND
LOW CLOUDS TO AGAIN RE DEVELOP OVERNIGHT FOR MORE MVFR/LOCAL IFR
CONDITIONS FROM AROUND 08Z-14Z.

.MARINE...WINDS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY EAST/NORTHEAST LESS THAN 10 KNOTS AND
SEAS LESS THAN 3 FEET THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. AS UPPER
ENERGY MOVES THROUGH THE CENTRAL GULF ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...EXPECT
WINDS AND SEAS TO INCREASE SOME THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH SOME 4 FT
SEAS AND 15 KNOT WINDS EXPECTED WELL OFFSHORE.

.FIRE WEATHER...NO CONCERNS.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  66  79  66  78 /  20  30  30  50
FMY  66  84  69  79 /  20  30  40  60
GIF  64  80  65  79 /  20  30  30  50
SRQ  64  80  66  78 /  20  30  30  50
BKV  57  78  61  76 /  10  30  30  50
SPG  67  78  68  77 /  20  30  30  50

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

SHORT TERM/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...05/CARLISLE
LONG TERM/AVIATION...25/DAVIS