000
FXUS61 KPHI 232034
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
334 PM EST MON NOV 23 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A FAIRLY WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST WILL
MOVE NORTHEAST AND PASS WELL TO THE EAST OF DELAWARE AND NEW JERSEY
COASTS TONIGHT. VERY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE OVER THE AREA
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY THEN A COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST WILL MOVE
INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST ON THURSDAY AND IT
SHOULD MOVE THROUGH NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED
TO BUILD SLOWLY INTO OUR REGION FROM THE WEST FOR THE WEEKEND WITH
ANOTHER COLD FRONT ON ITS HEELS FOR MONDAY.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
THE WRF-NMM INITIALIZED BETTER THAN THE GFS THIS MORNING AND IT WAS
USED CLOSER THROUGH TUESDAY DAY BEFORE A MODEL CONSENSUS WAS
FOLLOWED AFTERWARD. BOTH THE GFS AND WRF-NMM LOOK TOO FAR W WITH THE
HEAVIER RAIN IN VIRGINIA THRU 18Z.

THE COASTAL LOWS ARE BURNING A RUT IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THIS MONTH
WITH THIS ONE RELATIVELY WEAKER. A SIMILARITY AREA ALTHOUGH EXISTS
WITH THE NWWD EXTENT OF THE STEADIER/SYNOPTIC SCALE PRECIPITATION
CLOSE TO THE I95 CORRIDOR. ALTHOUGH TIMING DIFFERENCES EXIST BETWEEN
THE MODELS THE FORECAST ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE SERN PART OF OUR CWA
IS STRONGER IN THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT THAN THE SECOND HALF.
TAKING THAT INTO CONSIDERATION WE EMPHASIZED THE HIGHEST POPS AND
QPF DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT IN OUR CWA AND SHIFTED IT TO
THE NORTHEAST PART OF OUR CWA IN THE SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT. NORTH
AND WEST OF THE I95 CORRIDOR THE MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE MOIST
BUT NOT THAT DEEP GENERALLY BELOW 10K. THIS POINTS MORE TOWARD
DRIZZLE AS A MAIN PTYPE THAN RAIN. REGARDLESS OVERALL QPF S/B AROUND
A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS NW AND UP TO HALF AN INCH SOUTHEAST. SEE
NO CONTINUITY OR ANY MASS FIELDS TO SUPPORT THE GFS BULLSEYE NW CWA
LATE. LIKE OUR PREDECESSOR WE ARE NOT SEEING ANY CONVECTIVE FORCING
UPRIGHT OR SLANTWISE. WE DID ADD FOG FOR THE NIGHT BECAUSE OF THE
FCST MOIST BOUNDARY LYR. OVERALL BECAUSE OF THE CLOUDS AND UPWIND
TEMPS WE PREFER THE HIGHER MOS DATASETS FOR TNGTS MIN.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE ON TUESDAY BUT
THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS MORE OF A DEFACTO LACK OF LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM HIGH THAN A DEFINITIVE DRIVING FORCE. AS SUCH ITS FCST
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION IS SO HIGH THAT IT WOULD BECOME EASY FOR THE SC
TO BECOME TRAPPED UNDERNEATH OR NOT DISSIPATE BECAUSE OF THE WEAK
NOVEMBER SUN. ALSO IN THE WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW THE MODELS ARE
LINGERING SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION JUST TO OUR W SO IF WE ARE WRONG
ABOUT THE LACK OF AFTN PCPN IT WOULD BE WEST. DUE TO THE CLOUDS WE
WILL SIDE WITH THE LOWER STAT GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS.

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND THE START OF WEDNESDAY RELATIVELY SPEAKING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS GOING TO BE LESS AND WE WILL HAVE OUR BEST
CHANCE AT PARTIAL CLEARING. BECAUSE NEAR THE GROUND MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED TO BE HIGH WE DID ADD SOME PATCHY FOG TUESDAY NIGHT. SINCE
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH AS TO WHICH WAY THE CLOUDS WILL GO WE DID
SIDE WITH THE LOWER MOS STAT GUIDANCE. THE CDFNT APPROACHES OUR CWA
ON WEDNESDAY. THE PVA WITH THE WRF-NMM IS FASTER THAN THE GFS AND
ECMWF SO WE WENT WITH A SLOWER ARRIVAL OF SHOWERS AND LEANED CLOSER
TO GFS POPS THAN NAM POPS. WE WILL ALSO BLEND THE STAT GUIDANCE
BELIEVING THERE WILL BE SOME SUN AROUND.

THE WEATHER SCENARIO GETS A BIT MORE COMPLICATED ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF THE
NORTH CAROLINA COAST AS THE 500MB TROF CONTINUES TO DIG FARTHER TO
THE WEST. IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THERE WILL BE CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE
COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR OR OVER OUR CWA AS THE FORMER LOW MOVES
FARTHER OFFSHORE EAST OF OUR CWA. EVENTUALLY THESE LOWS WILL MERGE
INTO ONE PROBABLY ON FRIDAY MORNING EAST OF OUR CWA. IN TERMS OF
SENSIBLE WEATHER THERE SHOULD BE AN INCREASE IN BOTH THE CHANCE AND
AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY THAT WILL
MORPH INTO MORE OF A SYNOPTIC SCALE RAIN AS THE LOWS MERGE.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE WEST AND A COASTAL LOW BEGINS TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THE SHOWERY WEATHER THURSDAY
WILL TURN INTO A MORE GENERAL AREA OF RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT
AND LOW WILL CONSOLIDATE INTO AN INTENSIFYING LOW ALONG THE SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND COAST FRIDAY AND MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEAST. THIS WILL BRING
WINDY COLD AND DAMP WEATHER TO OUR AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. EXPECT
SHOWERS THROUGHOUT OUR REGION FRIDAY. WITH THE UPPER LOW CROSSING
OUR AREA FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT COULD BE ENOUGH COLD AIR SO THAT
THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS SNOW IN OUR NORTHERN SECTIONS
ESPECIALLY HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE SHOWERS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. A FEW RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS COULD
LINGER IN THE POCONOS INTO EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT. FAIR WEATHER HIGH
PRESSURE THEN TAKES OVER FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY BEFORE
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. FRIDAY WILL BE QUITE
CHILLY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 40S. SATURDAY WILL SEE TEMPERATURES
SIMILAR TO FRIDAY ALTHOUGH IT SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES MILDER IN THE
SOUTH. SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BEGIN TO WARM UP JUST A TAD WITH
READINGS IN THE 40S TO MID 50S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 20S AND 30S.

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL KPNE KTTN KABE KRDG KILG
KMIV KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THE ENTIRE STRIP OF COAST FROM NEW ENGLAND TO NJ IS MVFR AND IFR
DOWN THE COAST TO THE CAROLINAS. ONLY A SMALL WEDGE OF VFR WX EXITS
OVER RDG AND ABE. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE IN THE
NEAR AND SHORT TERM AS THE THE ONSHORE WINDS BRINGS IN THE LOWER
CLOUDS AND RAIN MOVE NORTHEAST FROM THE SOUTH. IN A FEW HOURS MVFR
TO IFR WILL BE THE RULE ACROSS THE ENTIRE TRACON AREA. THE WINDS
WILL BE FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST WITH THE HIGHER GUSTS FROM THE
DELAWARE RIVER TO THE COAST. THE BOUNDARY LINE BETWEEN VFR AND IFR
ON TUESDAY WILL BE THE SITES KTTN-KPHL-KILG. EAST OF THAT WILL BE
IFR AND TO THE WEST MVFR OR BETTER.

KDOV DOPPLER WIND PROFILE SHOWS NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 30
KTS TO 7000 FT THEN BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST UP TO 26000 FT. KDIX
AND TPHL ARE VERY SIMILAR.

OUTLOOK...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING VFR WEATHER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
ANOTHER LOW WILL MOVE UP THE COAST LATE THURSDAY AND MERGE WITH A
LOW MOVING ACROSS FROM PENNSYLVANIA AND CONSOLIDATE INTO A STRONG
LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL BRING COLD AIR SOME SNOW TO PARTS OF THE
REGION AND A VERY STRONG OFFSHORE WIND FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

.MARINE...
AT 2 PM BUOY 44009 IS REPORTING A 10 FOOT PRIMARY 8 SECTION SWELL
WITH A SMALL CHOP ON TOP. WINDS ARE FROM 040 DEGREES AT 23 TO 27
KTS. TEXAS TOWER 4 BUOY HAS AN 11 FT 8 SECOND SWELL WITH A WIND
FROM 030 AT 23-27 KT. WAVES IN SIDE THE DELAWARE BAY HAVE A 3 FT
WAVE EVERY 4 SECONDS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH WITH THE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MAINE WITH ITS CLOCKWISE WIND
EXTENDING DOWN THE COAST AND INTERACTING WITH THE LOW PRESSURE
MOVING NORTH FROM THE CAROLINAS.

WE CONTINUE WITH THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES UNTIL MID MORNING FOR
DELAWARE BAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR THE OCEAN UNTIL THE
WAVES SETTLE DOWN AS THE LOW MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. A WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE LOW FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY BUT
ANOTHER WEAK COASTAL LOW WILL MOVE NORTH FROM THE CAROLINAS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND BRING MORE ONSHORE WINDS. A STRONG LOW WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION AND OFFSHORE FRIDAY WITH A GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
THAT WILL USHER IN MUCH COLDER AIR WITH GALES FOR FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY.

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE TIDE REACHED BETWEEN 5.3 AND 5.7 FEET ABOVE MLLW IN THOSE AREAS
WHERE THE THRESHOLD PRIOR TO THE VETERANS DAY STORM WAS 6.0 FOR
MINOR. HOWEVER WITH THE EROSION THAT TOOK PLACE LAST WEEK THAT
THRESHOLD MAY HAVE BEEN LOWERED A BIT FOR SOME AREAS AND COULD HAVE
RESULTED IN SOME NUISANCE TO MINOR TIDAL FLOODING. WE WILL CONTINUE
THE ADVISORY FOR THE HIGH TIDE AROUND MID DAY TUESDAY WITH THE
DEPARTURES EXPECTED TO BE ABOUT THE SAME AND THE NORTHEAST WINDS
CONTINUE TO GUST ABOVE 25 KNOTS AND SEAS 4 TO 5 FT ON THE BEACH.

AT THE OTHER END OF THE SCALE...ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WE MAY HAVE
TO DEAL WITH BLOW-OUT TIDES AS A STRONG COLD LOW MOVES OFF THE COAST
WITH OFFSHORE GALE FORCE WINDS.

.CLIMATE...
TIME ALWAYS MARCHES ON AND ITS TIME ONCE AGAIN FOR OUR SEMI-ANNUAL
ANALOG FEST OF TRYING TO COMPARE THIS AUTUMNS TEMPERATURES AND ENSO
STATE WITH SIMILAR INSTANCES IN THE PAST.

THIS UPCOMING WINTER WILL FEATURE EL NINO CONDITIONS IN THE TROPICAL
PACIFIC. MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR A MODERATE TYPE EL NINO TO OCCUR.
THE LAST TWO WINTERS THAT HAD MODERATE EL NINOS WERE 2002-3 AND
2006-7 ALMOST POLAR OPPOSITE WINTERS IN SPITE OF BEING IN THE SAME
CATEGORY. THE 2002-3 EL NINO WAS MORE WEST BASED THAN 2006-7. THE
2002-3 EL NINO HAD A PACIFIC DECADAL OSCILLATION PDO THAT WAS
STRONGLY POSITIVE AND THERE WAS A COLD WATER POOL AROUND
NEWFOUNDLAND. THE 2006-7 EL NINO THE PACIFIC DECADAL OSCILLATION WAS
MORE NEUTRAL AND THERE WAS A WARM POOL AROUND NEWFOUNDLAND. SO FAR
THIS AUTUMN THE EL NINO DOES LOOK MORE WEST BASED THAN 2006-7 THE
PACIFIC DECADAL OSCILLATION HAS RECENTLY BEEN WEAKLY POSITIVE AND
THERE WAS BUT NOT AT THE PRESENT MOMENT A NEWFOUNDLAND WARM POOL.

EARLIER THIS MONTH A WESTERLY WIND BURST ALONG THE EQUATOR CAUSED A
RAPID WARMING OF THE TROPICAL WATERS WHICH BROUGHT THE SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES INTO THE LOW END OF THE STRONG EL NINO
CATEGORY. SINCE THEN SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES HAVE
STABILIZED. AS PER ITS NAME MOST EL NINOS PEAK IN DECEMBER BEFORE
WEAKENING THE REST OF THE WINTER.

OTHER ATMOSPHERIC TELECONNECTIONS ALL AFFECT OUR WEATHER PATTERN.
THE STATE OF THE REST OF THE PACIFIC IS MEASURED BY THE PACIFIC
DECADAL OSCILLATION PDO IN THE LONGER TERM AND THE PACIFIC NORTH
AMERICA OSCILLATION PNA IN THE SHORTER TERM. ON OUR SIDE OF THE
COAST WE HAVE THE NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION NAO. WE ARE IN THE
DECADAL CYCLE WHERE THE PDO IS AVERAGING NEGATIVE. THIS DOES NOT
FAVOR PROLONGED RIDGING IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC A POSITIVE PNA. BUT
IN EL NINO WINTERS THE PDO CAN AND HAS BECOME POSITIVE AS IT DID
DURING THE WINTERS OF 1982-3 AND 1997-8.

MEANWHILE THE STATE OF THE ATLANTIC AS MEASURED BY THE NAO ALSO
INFLUENCES OUR WEATHER. A POSITIVE NAO GENERALLY FAVORS MILDER
WEATHER WHILE A NEGATIVE NAO FAVORS COLDER AND STORMIER CONDITIONS
ALONG THE EAST COAST. THE OUTLOOK FOR THE NAO FOR THIS UPCOMING
WINTER IS MORE PROBLEMATIC THAN USUAL WITH MANY CONFLICTING
SIGNALS. THE NEWFOUNDLAND WATER POOL AVERAGED WARM DURING THE LATE
SPRING AND SUMMER. USUALLY THE WINTER FOLLOWS SUIT AND IS ONE OF
THE REASONS THAT THE UKMET OUTLOOK FOR THIS UPCOMING WINTER IS FOR
A POSITIVE NAO. BUT TU AL OTHER RESEARCH HAS SHOWN
CORRELATIONS BETWEEN LOWER THAN AVERAGE SURFACE PRESSURES SOUTH OF
ALASKA AND OCEANIC TEMPERATURE DIPOLES AROUND JAPAN IN THE AUTUMN
AND THE NAO FOR THE ENSUING WINTER. THE SOUTH OF ALASKA SURFACE
PRESSURE AVERAGED LOWER THAN NORMAL AND THE JAPANESE OCEANIC
DIPOLE BOTH CORRELATE TO A NEGATIVE NAO. ON THE OTHER HAND CLIMO
RESEARCH HAS SHOWN ABOUT A 60/40 SWITCH BETWEEN THE NAO STATE IN
OCTOBER AND THE ENSUING WINTER. THE NAO AVERAGED NEGATIVE IN
OCTOBER. LASTLY THE NEWFOUNDLAND WATER POOL TURNED COOLER THAN
NORMAL AFTER HURRICANE BILL PASSED AND HAS NOT LOOKED BACK YET.

IF THE EL NINO REMAINS AS STRONG AS IT HAS BEEN THE PAST TWO WEEKS
IT CAN OVERWHELM THE NAO AND PDO AND REDUCE ITS INFLUENCE ON OUR
WEATHER. BUT WITHOUT A CERTAIN STRONG EL NINO THE FATE OF THIS
WINTER WILL BE INFLUENCED SOME BY THESE LESS PREDICTABLE
TELECONNECTIONS. HENCE THIS IN ALL LIKELIHOOD MODERATE EL NINO
WINTER FROM JUST A PDO AND NAO PERSPECTIVE AS OF TODAY LOOKS LIKE
A CROSS BETWEEN THE WINTERS OF 2002-3 AND 2006-7.

THIS FINALLY TAKES US TO THE LIST OF EL NINO AUTUMNS IN THE PAST IN
PHILADELPHIA. ALL OF THESE ANALOG YEARS HAD AN OCTOBER THAT WAS IN
THE AVERAGE OR NORMAL TERCILE OF ALL OCTOBERS DATING BACK TO 1872
AND A NOVEMBER THAT AVERAGED WARMER THAN NORMAL IN THE HIGHEST
TERCILE.

HERE ARE THE BIG EIGHT OF WHAT OCCURRED WITH PAST EL NINOS THAT HAD
AN AVERAGE OCTOBER AND WARM NOVEMBER. THIS IS BASED ON THE 137 YEARS
OF RECORD IN PHILADELPHIA. THE NORMALS ARE THE CURRENT 1971-2000
NORMALS.

YEAR           ENSUING   ENSUING   ENSUING  AVG    ENSUING ENSUING
               DEC       JAN       FEB      TEMP   PCPN    SNOW

1877-8         40.8      33.0      36.9     36.9    6.41   N/A
1902-3         33.7      32.6      36.5     34.3   14.44   16.8
1930-1         36.6      36.2      37.4     36.7    6.59    4.1
1963-4         27.9      33.0      31.8     30.9    8.51   32.9
1982-3         41.3      34.1      34.0     36.5    8.14   35.9
1994-5         41.9      38.2      31.5     37.2    7.62    9.8
2004-5         37.8      31.8      36.1     35.2   10.23   30.4
2006-7         42.7      38.2      28.0     36.3    7.23   13.4

AVERAGE        37.8      34.6      34.0     35.5    8.65   20.5
NORMAL         37.4      32.3      34.8     34.8    9.57   19.3

THE OFFICIAL CPC OUTLOOK FOR THIS WINTER HAS THE PHILADELPHIA AREA
ON THE BORDER BETWEEN EQUAL CHANCES TO OUR NORTH AND A SLIGHTLY
GREATER CHANCE OF THE WINTER BEING COLDER THAN NORMAL TO OUR SOUTH.
THE PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK HAS EQUAL CHANCES OF BEING EITHER WETTER
OR DRIER THAN NORMAL.

SEASONAL SNOWFALLS HAVE TREMENDOUS VARIABILITY IN EL NINO WINTERS
ONCE THE STRENGTH INCREASES TO MODERATE OR GREATER. THE STRONGER
SUBTROPICAL JET ASSOCIATED WITH THE EL NINO NOT ONLY INCREASES THE
FREQUENCY OF STORMS BUT ALSO BRINGS IN RELATIVELY WARMER AIR. WE
HAVE WITNESSED IT THIS AUTUMN WITH THREE STRONG NOREASTERS AND
OTHER WEAKER SYSTEMS. THE QUESTION ALWAYS BECOMES HOW COLD WILL IT
BE WHEN THESE STORMS ARRIVE. THE COLDEST AND SNOWIEST EL NINO
WINTERS OCCUR IN PHILADELPHIA WHEN THE EL NINO REMAINS WEAK. IN
PHILADELPHIA SINCE 1950 WEAK EL NINOS HAVE AVERAGED 28.1 INCHES OF
SNOW MODERATE EL NINOS 22.9 INCHES OF SNOW AND STRONG EL NINOS
16.6 INCHES OF SNOW.

USING A MODERATE EL NINO AS THE BEST ESTIMATE FOR THIS UPCOMING
WINTER AND LOOKING BACK AT MODERATE EL NINOS SINCE 1950 WE FOUND
THAT MODERATE EL NINOS HAVE ACCOUNTED FOR SEVEN OF THE FORTY-SEVEN
SIX INCH OR GREATER MEASURED SNOW EVENTS IN PHILADELPHIA. FROM AN
OVERALL PERSPECTIVE THEY HAVE ACCOUNTED FOR 15 PERCENT OF ALL THESE
EVENTS IN SPITE THAT MODERATE EL NINOS ONLY COMPRISE 10 PERCENT
OF ALL WINTERS SINCE 1950. THE LARGER SNOW EVENTS DURING MODERATE
EL NINO WINTERS FAVOR THE 6 TO 10 INCH RANGE AS MEASURED IN
PHILADELPHIA. SINCE 1950 THERE HAVE BEEN SEVEN EVENTS THAT HAVE
EQUALED OR EXCEEDED SIX INCHES OF SNOW AND ONE THAT HAS EQUALED OR
EXCEEDED TEN INCHES.

THE QUESTION WE WISHED WE KNEW THE ANSWER TO WAS WHETHER THIS
UPCOMING NINO WINTER WOULD BE A ONE HIT WONDER LIKE 1994-5 OR GO
PLATINUM LIKE 1982-3 OR 2004-5. AS ALWAYS PAST PERFORMANCE IS
NOT AN INDICATION OF FUTURE TRENDS. WE HOPE EVERYBODY HAS A VERY
HAPPY AND HEALTHY THANKSGIVING AND UPCOMING HOLIDAY AND WINTER
SEASON. THE SALT HAS BEEN PURCHASED AND THE SNOW THROWER IS GASSED
AND READY TO GO.

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 3 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     NJZ020027.
DE...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 3 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     DEZ002004.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ450455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430-
     431.

SYNOPSIS...DELISI/GIGI
NEAR TERM...GIGI
SHORT TERM...GIGI
LONG TERM...RPW
AVIATION...EBERWINE
MARINE...EBERWINE
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...EBERWINE
CLIMATE...GIGI